The Cwc 2023 Final Loss Is Not What It Seems
India lost to Australia in the Cricket World Cup 2023 final, seemingly badly, but the headlines don’t tell the full story
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Context
India lost to Australia in last night’s Cricket World Cup finals played in Ahmedabad at the Narendra Modi Stadium.
This defeat came at the back of ten successive wins against the biggest and best cricket teams of the world, including Australia, in the league stages.
Not A Lament
But, this post is not a lament. It is an analysis and an explanation of why this defeat is not what is seems.
Let’s look at the World Cup games played at Ahmedabad.
The World Cup opened on October 5th at the Narendra Modi Stadium with a rematch between the finalists of the last World Cup — England and New Zealand. Scores — 283/9 and 284/1 respectively. NZ, batting second, won.
Next match at Ahmedabad on 14th October — Pakistan v India. 191 all out and 192/3 respectively.
Next, Nov 4th — Australia v England. 283 all out and 253 all out.
Final, Nov 19th — India v Australia — 240 all out and 241/4.
Prior to the final, the average score batting first was 252.
Similarly, before the final, the average wickets lost batting second was 4.67. This number is inflated by the abject all out performance by England on November 4th who were near the bottom of the points table at that stage having lost most of their matches until then. If you exclude the Australia-England match, you could expect to win with 8 wickets to spare.
So, Australia choosing to bat second was hardly unexpected once they won the toss. In fact, given how horrible India’s luck was last night (discussed next), reaching 240 is very creditable.
Next, let us look at the luck of the green.
The Luck Of The Green
Batting at 55 off 63 balls, Kohli chops on to his stumps against the run of play. You could see the shock on his face. Prior to, Travis Head takes a stunning catch running backwards miles to get rid of Rohit Sharma.
